Interest rates nz

2022 - 4 - 13

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Image courtesy of "ABC News"

New Zealand interest rates jump 0.5pc in 'highly uncertain ... (ABC News)

New Zealand announces its fourth straight interest rate hike, US consumer prices rise at their fastest pace since 1981, while surging commodity prices boost ...

Currently, the confidence score is sitting at 95.8 points. In comparison, Australia's cash rate target is much lower and has been sitting at a record low 0.1 per cent since November 2020. The Fed raised rates last month to a target range (0.25 to 0.5 per cent), its first increase in three years, and said more rate hikes were ahead. US consumer prices jumped 8.5 per cent compared to a year ago, according to the Labor Department's figures for March. It was the fastest rise in the cost of living since December 1981. Consumer sentiment, dipped 0.9 per cent in April (compared to the previous month), on top of the steep 4.2 per cent drop in March. This was according to the latest monthly consumer survey by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute — a closely-watched indicator of future economic conditions. Districts have been announcing which compounds can be opened up. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3 per cent to 13,372, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3 per cent to 34,220." "That would mark one hike at every meeting along with another 50 basis point hike in May. That would take rates to 3 per cent by the end of this year." "The [Reserve] Bank’s February forecast showed the Bank hiking rates to 2.25 per cent by the end of this year," said Ben Udy, Capital Economics' Australian and New Zealand economist. The RBNZ expects annual inflation to peak around 7 per cent in the first half of this year, well above its 1-3 per cent target, underlining the urgency to temper price-setting behaviour. - The Fed is expected to lift US interest rates by 50 basis point (0.5 per cent) in May The purpose of this was to head off rising inflation expectations and minimise any unnecessary volatility in output, interest rates, and the exchange rate in the future.

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Image courtesy of "Stuff.co.nz"

Interest rate rises, and the risk of a 'hard landing' for the economy (Stuff.co.nz)

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr discusses the level of concern about inflation in February. Dileepa Fonseka is a Stuff writer on business and politics. OPINION ...

Where central bank policy can go wrong is when it tapers the economy off too sharply, causing a lot of pain and economic misery in the process. Then there is Sri Lanka, which is running out of foreign reserves, and where Fonterra – which has a dominant position in the market there – is providing goods on extended credit. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner agrees the risk of a “hard landing” for the economy grows with each rate hike, but she also sees dramatic interest rate rises now as a way of stopping hard landings by preventing the need for even more aggressive increases in the future. With inflation running hot, the Reserve Bank has to balance its desire to temper inflation with a need not to take the economy out at the knees. It can be hard for younger generations to imagine that stories like these, of a time when unemployment was biting and interest rates high, could happen in the present day. Interest rate rises, and the risk of a 'hard landing' for the economy

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Image courtesy of "Stuff.co.nz"

BNZ, ANZ move to raise interest rates after official cash rate hike (Stuff.co.nz)

First banks move after Reserve Bank announces big rate change.

This also has an impact on our fixed interest rates for home loans,” he said. It passed on the full 50 basis point OCR increase to its floating interest rate and flexible home loan interest rate, which will increase to 5.54 per cent and 5.65 per cent, respectively. “For people who haven’t experienced rising interest rates it can be daunting, particularly homeowners who are rolling off low fixed rates when floating and fixed rates are now higher.” BNZ and ANZ have both moved to lift home loan interest rates after the Reserve Bank increased the official cash rate (OCR) to 1.5 per cent on Wednesday. * ASB and Westpac lift home loan rates following Reserve Bank OCR hike BNZ, ANZ move to raise interest rates after official cash rate hike

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Image courtesy of "New Zealand Herald"

OCR hike: ANZ moves first to lift mortgage rates (New Zealand Herald)

ANZ Bank has lifted its mortgage rates in response to the Reserve Bank hiking the official cash rate. ANZ announced its floating and flexible home loan ...

This also has an impact on our fixed interest rates for home loans," Kelleher said. Ben Udy at Sydney based Capital Economics said they expected the Reserve Bank to "hike the OCR to 3 per cent by the end of this year". The committee said it saw the 'path of least regret' was "to increase the OCR by more now, rather than later, to head off rising inflation expectations and minimise any unnecessary volatility in output, interest rates, and the exchange rate in the future".

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Image courtesy of "The Globe and Mail"

New Zealand's central bank raises interest rates by 50 basis points ... (The Globe and Mail)

The interest rate hike by New Zealand's central bank is its biggest in over two decades, extending a global shift toward tighter policy.

The RBNZ has been one of the most aggressive central banks in rolling back stimulus as policy-makers sought to get on top of a red-hot housing market and soaring inflation. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. House prices are falling and business and consumer confidence is taking a hammering, while risks to growth have risen from the Ukraine war even though fourth quarter GDP increased a robust 3.0 per cent. That held back the kiwi dollar from rallying sharply – it added 0.5 per cent to $0.6885 but remained well short of its recent five-month high of $0.7034. This is only moderately hawkish, the currency can go up a little bit,” said Imre Speizer, head of NZ markets strategy at Westpac. “The Reserve Bank has shown that they’re pretty keen to get the cash rate higher earlier so we’ll have a cash rate of 3 per cent by the end of the year, which is quite punchy when you think about where other central banks are.”

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Image courtesy of "Stuff.co.nz"

Reserve Bank decision could push one- and two-year mortgage ... (Stuff.co.nz)

Homes used to cost a lot less, but in previous decades home loan interest rates were much higher. The Official Cast Rate (OCR) has been increased to 1.5 per ...

“The strain here isn’t going to be so much in the housing market, but in other areas of consumer spending. "Going from a 5 per cent to 6 per cent mortgage rate would cost an extra $750 per year per $100,000 of debt. “Instead, people jumped in to fix one year at 2.19 and 2.49 per cent, so people’s focus is very much on the rates of the day and not really to where rates are likely to go in the future.” Alexander said everyday home loan borrowers were no better at understanding the impact of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy than they were a decade ago, and their focus remained on the home loan interest rates of the day – and not how they might change in the future. “I have no worries, people had to prove they could service at least 6.5 per cent, and anyone who took out a mortgage three years ago probably had to prove they could service 7.5 or 8 per cent,” he said. So somebody with a $500,000 mortgage would be on the hook for almost $4000 more per year - and they’ll already be paying more anyway, if they were originally fixed at 2 per cent or 3 per cent a year or two years ago,” he said.

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Image courtesy of "Interest.co.nz"

OCR up 50 points to 1.5% (Interest.co.nz)

Reserve Bank lifts Official Cash Rate by 50 points to 1.5%, opting to tighten monetary conditions at pace to avoid high inflation becoming embedded.

Expect more FOOP, and expect a doubling down of FONGO. The only way out when selling today is to drop the price. They're definitely the ones who need to be taught a lesson.Read less They'll also have the debt they took on to pay for it, which is my actual point. They'll also have the debt they took on to pay for it, which is my actual point. "The Committee noted that the OCR is stimulatory at its current level. it is too easy for the Bank to let things slide. We have had 12 months of data (pricing intentions, employment figures) all pointing to this, but he chose to stick his head in the sand and keep massively stimulatory policies in place - not "neutral" monetary settings, emergency stimulatory settings. Definitely a fair bit of building of affordable housing supply which helped NZ to attain its once high home ownership rate by the 1980s and 90s. The Committee noted that the OCR is stimulatory at its current level. As such, the Committee confirmed that further increases in the OCR are needed in order to meet their mandate. A larger move now also provides more policy flexibility ahead in light of the highly uncertain global economic environment. The Monetary Policy Committee today increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 1.50 percent.

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Image courtesy of "New Zealand Herald"

OCR: Reserve Bank delivers double rate hike (New Zealand Herald)

Interest rates are headed higher after the official cash rate was hiked this afternoon.

After all, some banks are reportedly making a bit more low-deposit finance available, while the relaxed CCCFA rule changes are set to commence soon." "For the housing market, the implications are clear – even though mortgage rates have already been rising again in recent weeks, this process isn't over yet. Many 'special' fixed-rate mortgages in the popular 1-2 year terms are currently in the range of 4-5 per cent, and it seems fair to suggest that this could end up in the range of 5-6 per cent over the coming months, perhaps a bit above." The committee said it saw the 'path of least regret' was "to increase the OCR by more now, rather than later, to head off rising inflation expectations and minimise any unnecessary volatility in output, interest rates, and the exchange rate in the future". Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr has a policy of following "the path of least regret." The monetary policy committee said it "remained comfortable" with the outlook for the OCR as outlined in their February Monetary Policy Statement."

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Image courtesy of "Stuff.co.nz"

US inflation hits 8.5% ahead of NZ interest rate decision (Stuff.co.nz)

Higher-than-expected jump in US prices comes with economists still at odds over how fast NZ's Reserve Bank will lift its OCR.

The price of fruit and vegetables leapt 18 per cent and meat and fish were 8.7 per cent more expensive, with the price of other groceries growing at a slower pace. The acceleration in the US consumer price index, which rose by 1.2 per cent in the month of March alone, appears to be cementing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May. The jump in US consumer prices was slightly above market expectations and was fuelled by increases in the price of fuel and food, which have been accelerating in price in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

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Image courtesy of "Nikkei Asia"

New Zealand's central bank raises interest rates to 1.5% (Nikkei Asia)

WELLINGTON (Reuters) -- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points to 1.5% on Wednesday, its fourth hike in a ro.

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Image courtesy of "Aljazeera.com"

New Zealand central bank unveils biggest rate hike in 20 years (Aljazeera.com)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised interest rates by a hefty 0.5 percent, or 50 basis points, to 1.50 percent on Wednesday, its fourth hike in a ...

The central bank is facing opposing challenges. This is only moderately hawkish, the currency can go up a little bit,” he said. The RBNZ has been one of the most aggressive central banks in rolling back stimulus as policymakers seek to get on top of a red-hot housing market and soaring inflation.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

RBNZ's Biggest Hike in 22 Years Sounds Global Inflation Warning (Bloomberg)

New Zealand's central bank delivered its biggest interest-rate increase in 22 years, signaling that policy makers around the world may need to step up ...

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

New Zealand raises rates by most in 22 years on surging inflation (Financial Times)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its official interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.5 per cent, bringing forward an increase that it had flagged would be ...

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OCR decision: How high will the Reserve Bank take the official cash ... (Newshub)

The Reserve Bank is expected to hike the official cash rate (OCR) on Wednesday as New Zealand experiences the highest level of inflation in decades.

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Image courtesy of "New Zealand Herald"

'More pain': National blames Govt for OCR, food price hikes; PM hits ... (New Zealand Herald)

The National Party is laying the blame for a major hike in the official cash rate (OCR) and "spiralling" increases in food costs squarely at the feet of the ...

And that is something we can act on." "Rising food prices is a global issue. Kiwis deserve better." Luxon said it was about "half and half" domestic and external factors, and the Government needed to "be smart and rein in spending". Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark said the increase in food costs was above general inflation figures and highlighted the role the grocery sector is playing in driving up prices. Ardern said the OCR rate was back to less than in 2017: "It has been historically low." However, she said during Question Time they were concerned for families who were "overleveraged in the market because they may have purchased at a time during historically low interest rates". National Party leader Christopher Luxon said it was difficult to blame all of an 18 per cent rise in fresh produce and 7.7pc food price overall on the war in Ukraine. On food prices, the Government said it was an issue "nearly every country is facing" with Covid-19 related supply chain issues and the ongoing war in Ukraine, and reinforced the need to rein in "super profits of the supermarket duopoly". "New Zealand is in the middle of the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. The National Party is laying the blame for a major hike in the official cash rate (OCR) and "spiralling" increases in food costs squarely at the feet of the Government. Fruit and vegetable prices were up 18 per cent in March 2022 compared to the same month the year before.

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Image courtesy of "RNZ"

Reserve Bank lifts OCR to 1.5 percent (RNZ)

The Reserve Bank has stepped up the battle against inflation with an increase of half of a percentage point in the Official Cash Rate to 1.5 percent, ...

"Moving the OCR to a more neutral stance sooner will reduce the risks of rising inflation expectations. The RBNZ started raising the official cash rate in October last year, with further hikes in November and February this year as it ended its easy money policies which pumped billions of dollars at rock bottom rates to support the financial system when Covid hit in 2020. The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has stepped up the battle against inflation with an increase of half of a percentage point in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 1.5 percent, with a warning that further rises are coming.

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BNZ, ANZ, ASB move to raise interest rates after official cash rate hike (Stuff.co.nz)

First banks move after Reserve Bank announces big rate change.

This also has an impact on our fixed interest rates for home loans,” he said. ASB lifted its variable rate from 4.85 per cent to 5.35 per cent and its Orbit home loan from 4.95 per cent to 5.45 per cent. It passed on the full 50 basis point OCR increase to its floating interest rate and flexible home loan interest rate, which will increase to 5.54 per cent and 5.65 per cent, respectively. * ASB and Westpac lift home loan rates following Reserve Bank OCR hike BNZ and ANZ have both moved to lift home loan interest rates after the Reserve Bank increased the official cash rate (OCR) to 1.5 per cent on Wednesday. BNZ’s floating rate will increase from 5.15 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

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Image courtesy of "New Zealand Herald"

Third bank increases mortgage rates after cash rate rise (New Zealand Herald)

The Reserve Bank increased the OCR from 1 per cent to 1.5 per cent yesterday.

"For the housing market, the implications are clear – even though mortgage rates have already been rising again in recent weeks, this process isn't over yet. This also has an impact on our fixed interest rates for home loans," Kelleher said. The new variable rates for the ASB come in from April 27 for new loans and May 4 for existing loans. ANZ announced its floating and flexible home loan interest rates would go up 0.5 per cent to 5.54 per cent and 5.65 per cent (per annum) respectively. ASB will lift its floating mortgage rate from 4.85 per cent to 5.35 per cent and its orbit rate from 4.95 per cent to 5.45 per cent. Its move follows ANZ and BNZ who both lifted their variable rates yesterday soon after the Reserve Bank increased the OCR from 1 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

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Image courtesy of "Stuff.co.nz"

What happened last time house prices fell, and is this time different? (Stuff.co.nz)

Valocity head of valuations James Wilson gives his take on what property prices will do in the coming year, and what trends might emerge. House prices are ...

The Reserve Bank reports house prices in March 2009 were 9 per cent below the year before. If the limit was set at five, and a borrower’s income was $100,000, they could borrow up to $500,000. This does not appear to be the case today. Roughly 60 per cent of home loans will need to be refinanced in the next year and for many borrowers, that will mean their interest rates doubling, according to CoreLogic. According to the Reserve Bank, in December almost 60 per cent of new home loans in New Zealand had DTIs over five. In the UK banks can only lend out up to 15 per cent of new mortgages at a DTI greater than 4.5. He says New Zealand was in a good position for the GFC because the amount of sub-prime lending (lending to borrowers with low incomes or poor credit histories) was low compared to other countries. The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement predicts higher interest rates, low net migration, changes in tax policy and tightened lending will result in house prices falling by about 9 per cent by the middle of 2024. Today, price falls began while interest rates were already historic lows (a result of the Reserve Bank trying to protect the economy from the impacts of Covid-19) and the Reserve Bank is signaling to lenders that interest rates have to go up, and quickly, to counter the biggest cost of living increases in over three decades. House prices are falling, and with predictions of more to come, many are thinking of the last time house prices fell – during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Valocity’s report suggests this decline matches how house prices reacted at the start of the GFC, when prices fell a little less than 3 per cent between late-2007 and the first three months of 2008. House prices are also starting falling in a similar fashion to the beginning of the GFC. Corelogic data released last month shows prices had fallen about 2 per cent from their high in November, which was in line with other market analyses, including Westpac bank’s.

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What happened Thursday (Interest.co.nz)

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more rate rises, housing sales slumped in March, factories expanded, eyes on health ...

As an example we are renovating offices in about 5-6 countries right now and I compare the cost in NZ to for example the US / Italy or India and NZ costs in multiples more it’s - bassically out of control the difference per square meter. That means the TWI-5 is now at 73.9, and and a -70 bps depreciation since this time yesterday. And to all those who bought, leveraged to the eyeballs, since August of last year........ "Costs in NZ are so out of control it’s a wonder anyone can get anything done here. The 90 day bank bill rate is up a very unusual +7 bps at 1.79%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -7 bps from this time yesterday, now at 2.98%. The China Govt 10yr is little-changed at 2.82%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 3.47% and just below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 3.48% (down -7 bps) which pre-dated the OCR call. Be great if it was easier to bring people in in order to help drive some costs down and rebalance supply / demand. And property sellers finally converting from auction to 'price by negotiation'. The party is over. The US Govt ten year is now at 2.68% and another down -7 bps since this time yesterday in a growing reversal. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in early afternoon trade. Fund manager Kernel is adding a new KiwiSaver option in addition to its index fund set. The factory sector seems to be doing well, with the March PMI expanding slightly faster than in February. But the overall result was kept up by strong new order inflows. Those 'strong' new orders may just be an over-reaction buy buyers who just want to get their goods and feel they now need to over-order or bring forward orders.

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