Lest we forget

But for Australian markets it will be the March quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday that will be the big news – especially in an election ...

“Underlying inflation also likely gathered steam in the March quarter to 3% y/y, up from 2.7% in the December quarter. In the Eurozone March quarter GDP data on Friday is likely to have been depressed by the start of the war in Ukraine with the consensus expecting a 0.3%qoq rise or 5.1%yoy. April inflation data is likely to show a further acceleration along with unemployment and market and political reaction to the French election result “ We expect the March quarter inflation print will be the trigger for the Reserve Bank of Australia to bring forward its guidance for the cash rate to rise as early as May.” “As a result, inflation is likely to come in well above implied RBA forecasts for a 0.7-0.8%qoq rise in the CPI and underlying inflation. The AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says “We expect the CPI to rise by 1.7% quarter on quarter (qoq) or 4.6% year on year (yoy) driven in particular by a 9.5% rise in petrol prices, a strong rise in food prices not helped by the floods and the war and a surge in home building costs.