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2022 - 5 - 2

Post cover — Image courtesy of "Newsroom"

NZ sea level rising twice as fast (Newsroom)

The first project to incorporate climate projections with New Zealand's unique tectonics raises red flags for planners and policymakers.

We knew that there would be, over time, and so the programme is designed in a way to be able to cope with that.” “It’s going to be important to get that right if it’s going to achieve what we need it to achieve. SeaRise combines satellite measurements of vertical land movement with global projections for sea-level rise from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. We’re dealing with a system that’s changing and the rate at which it’s changing is increasing.” “Things like the vertical land movement data are really helpful in terms of breaking down how it might look at different points along the coastline. Parts of the country that are rising, like Stewart Island and the Bay of Plenty, would experience much slower sea-level rise. That’s knowledge, that's power, we can plan for that right now and we must plan for that right now,” Naish said. Much of the country could cross that first 30-centimetre threshold in a matter of decades, the SeaRise research found. Two decades later, the coastline could disappear under between 57 and 61 centimetres of sea-level rise, depending on whether global emissions decline rapidly or continue to rise. The results will be crucial as local and central government start to prepare for the impacts of climate change. Levy, who also leads environment and climate work at GNS Science, said relatively small changes in sea level can have an outsized impact on the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Parts of the North Island are sinking by nearly a centimetre each year.

Sea-level Is Rising Faster Than We Thought | Scoop News (Scoop.co.nz)

On 2 May 2022 the NZ SeaRise: Te Tai Pari O Aotearoa programme will release location specific sea-level rise projections out to the year 2300 for every 2 km ...

NZ SeaRise is a five-year research programme funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment Endeavour Fund. It brings together 30 local and international experts from Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington, GNS Science, NIWA, University of Otago and the Antarctic Science Platform to improve projections of sea-level rise in Aotearoa New Zealand. The sea-level projection and mapping tool was developed by Takiwā, a Māori-owned data management and analytics platform. The finance and insurance sector have already been asking for the data – in part driven by the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures reporting requirements that need to be met by 2024,” said Dr Levy. “We know that global sea-level rise of 25-30 cm by 2060 is baked in and unavoidable regardless of our future emissions pathway. These small but continuous changes add up, and in areas that are going down (subsiding) the annual rate of sea-level rise can double. “Twenty years ago we thought sea-level rise was like pouring water into a bathtub – if you put more water in, it rises uniformly around the world. However, local sea-level rise around the coast of Aotearoa is also affected by up and down movements of our land.

Sea levels rising twice as fast as thought in New Zealand (RNZ)

Major new projections show infrastructure and homes in Auckland and Wellington - as well as many other places - risk inundation decades earlier than ...

This sea level rise is caused by thermal expansion of the ocean, by melting land based glaciers, and by melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. "Yes, it is a bit terrifying but there is still time and I think that is the way to look at it." Naish said uncertainty about the predictions were clearly laid out in the tool - but he said there was no question that there would be a response from property owners, the insurance and banking sectors to the new information. "If you're a [council representative] or you're a developer, or you're a decisions maker in the coastal areas of New Zealand you need to start thinking right now what the plan is for adapting to that sea-level rise. A major worry is the suburb of Richmond and nearby parts in the Nelson area which is subsiding at about 5mm a year. New Zealanders will soon be able to see for the first time how much and how fast sea-level will rise along their own stretch of coast. "[This] doubles the amount of sea level rise and it halves the time ... you thought you had to deal with the sea-level rise that was in the original guidance documents that councils were using." He said local and regional councils in the region have known for a long time there could be issues there with sea-level rise. About 30cm of sea level rise is unavoidable because of the amount of climate gases already in the atmosphere. At the Viaduct the land is sinking about about 2.5mm a year. Globally the sea level is expected to rise about half a metre by 2100 - but for large parts of New Zealand it could more than double that because of land subsidence. Explosive new data shows the sea level is rising twice as fast as previously thought in some parts of Aotearoa, massively reducing the amount of time authorities have to respond.

Sea levels rising twice as fast as thought in some parts of NZ (1 News)

The major new projections show infrastructure and homes in Auckland and Wellington - as well as many other places - risk inundation decades earlier than ...

This sea level rise is caused by thermal expansion of the ocean, by melting land based glaciers, and by melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. "Yes, it is a bit terrifying but there is still time and I think that is the way to look at it." Naish said uncertainty about the predictions were clearly laid out in the tool - but he said there was no question that there would be a response from property owners, the insurance and banking sectors to the new information. "If you're a [council representative] or you're a developer, or you're a decisions maker in the coastal areas of New Zealand you need to start thinking right now what the plan is for adapting to that sea-level rise. A major worry is the suburb of Richmond and nearby parts in the Nelson area which is subsiding at about 5mm a year. New Zealanders will soon be able to see for the first time how much and how fast sea-level will rise along their own stretch of coast. He said local and regional councils in the region have known for a long time there could be issues there with sea-level rise. "[This] doubles the amount of sea level rise and it halves the time ... you thought you had to deal with the sea-level rise that was in the original guidance documents that councils were using." About 30cm of sea level rise is unavoidable because of the amount of climate gases already in the atmosphere. "That almost doubles the rate of expected sea-level rise and halves the time you have. At the Viaduct the land is sinking about about 2.5mm a year. Globally the sea level is expected to rise about half a metre by 2100 - but for large parts of New Zealand it could more than double that because of land subsidence.

Swifter rise in sea level predicted (Otago Daily Times)

Today, scientists in the NZ SeaRise programme will release location-specific sea level rise projections to the year 2300, for every 2km of the coast of New ...

Climate Change Minister James Shaw said the findings were "sobering" and the Government’s first plan to cut emissions in every part of New Zealand, would be published later this month. Joint Otago Regional and Dunedin City Councils’ South Dunedin Future group programme manager Jonathan Rowe welcomed the new information and said it would feed into many aspects of the councils’ work, particularly that relating to the South Dunedin programme which was considering climate change adaptation options. "We have estimated future sea levels for 7434 sites around our coastline.

New programme shows sea level rising twice as fast as previously ... (Newstalk ZB)

Important information for people living on our coastlines. New data from a programme comprising dozens of scientists called NZ SeaRise shows the sea level.

- Author - Newstalk ZB, - Author

With seas rising, who will pay for our most vulnerable coastal ... (The Spinoff)

Insurance companies aren't going to pay for homes made unliveable by sea level rises, so where should homeowners turn? Good question, writes Tom Logan.

But this still leaves the complex financial and ethical question of what happens to existing property owners. This guidance is not mandatory, however, and many councils do not have the resources or expertise to take a risk-based approach. This would ensure the premiums paid by coastal residents stayed in the local economy to support them. When the chance of damage rises beyond what an insurance company is prepared to bear, it withdraws. Domestic and international precedent suggests the central government might compensate some property owners. The latest research tells us coastal properties will start to lose insurance cover within the next 10 years, if not sooner.