From 5630 new Covid-19 cases announced last Tuesday to 8028 now. But experts are pouring cold water on talk of another large surge.
The new framework ranges from a “worst-case scenario” to a scenario where different variants are circulating at the same time. Covid-19 Response Minister Ayesha Verrall said the combination of Omicron and flu was making this winter more challenging than normal. New variants make it easier to be infected, although numerous studies show vaccination makes an illness more mild. “If it’s not happening now, I think it’s likely to happen in the next few weeks.” “Covid is still circulating in our community and those groups are still at risk of poor outcomes from contacting Covd-19,” he said. Hospital emergency departments around the country have been flooded with patients as a result of winter illnesses, including influenza, rhinovirus and enterovirus. Seven cases of BA.2.12.1 were detected for the first time in late May. It was hard to predict the most-likely scenario, but he said it was a “given" a new variant would be more transmissible than Omicron. That’s a jump of 602 or a roughly 12% increase. In a statement accompanying the release, the ministry said the increase was “not unusual after a long weekend” and more time was needed to determine if it was part of a trend. Based on genome-sequencing data which showed a rapid increase of new variants BA.4 and BA.5, Plank thought it likely the country was near the start of a “second wave”. It was predicted New Zealand could see a second wave of Omicron infections about now, though case numbers weren’t expected to be as high as in the original Omicron wave.