Taiwan

2022 - 8 - 2

Pelosi Pelosi

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China-U.S. Tensions Escalate Over Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan Visit ... (The Wall Street Journal)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, second in line to the presidency, is making the highest-level trip in 25 years by a U.S. government official to Taiwan, ...

Mrs. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would heighten geopolitical tensions, presenting another risk for global investors, warned OCBC Research in a note this week.

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Pelosi to Visit Taiwan as China Threatens Military Action (Bloomberg)

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday evening in defiance of Chinese threats, a trip that would make her the ...

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Chinese warplanes buzz line dividing Taiwan Strait before expected ... (RNZ)

China has repeatedly warned against Pelosi going to Taiwan, which it claims as its own.

China views visits by US officials to Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by Beijing, as sending an encouraging signal to the pro-independence camp in the island. Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims and says only its people can decide the island's future. The person said the Chinese aircraft repeatedly conducted tactical moves of briefly "touching" the median line and circling back to the other side of the strait on Tuesday morning, while Taiwanese aircraft were on standby nearby. The source said both Chinese warships and aircraft "squeezed" the median line on Tuesday morning, an unusual move the person described as "very provocative." In addition to Chinese planes flying close to the median line of the sensitive waterway on Tuesday morning, several Chinese warships had remained close to the unofficial dividing line since Monday, the source told Reuters. China has repeatedly warned against Pelosi going to Taiwan, which it claims as its own, and the United States said on Monday that it would not be intimidated by Chinese "sabre rattling" over the visit.

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Stocks fall as China warns against Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan (Financial Times)

Expected trip by US House Speaker risks further straining relations between Beijing and Washington.

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Asian shares fall on worries about Pelosi's visit to Taiwan (The Journal)

TOKYO (AP) - Asian shares were mostly lower Tuesday amid concerns about regional stability as an expected visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan ...

A surge in oil prices throughout the year only worsened the impact from inflation. When the central bank lifted the rate by a quarter percentage point at its monthly board meeting in May, it was the first rate hike in more than 11 years. Wall Street will also get several updates on the job market, which has remained strong. Stocks' recent rally came as worrisome economic reports gave some investors confidence that the Fed can dial back its aggressive pace of rate hikes sooner than expected. Businesses have been raising prices to try to keep up profits. August's subdued opening follows a solid rally for stocks last month: July was the best month for the S&P 500 index since November 2020. Many companies have also warned that inflation is hurting consumer spending and squeezing operations. No party wants a real war, but the risk of mishap or even aggressive war game escalation is real, which could always lead to a tactical mistake,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management said. U.S. crude oil prices are up roughly 25% in 2022 and that has raised gasoline prices in the U.S. to record levels. A report last week showed that the U.S. economy contracted last quarter and could be in a recession. A key concern remains whether central banks will raise interest rates too aggressively and push economies into a recession. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday boosted its benchmark interest rate for a fourth consecutive month to a six-year high of 1.85%. It was the third consecutive hike of half a percentage point.

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White House struggles to insulate Biden's China policy from Pelosi's ... (CNBC)

The Biden White House has tried for weeks to convince Beijing and the world that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's expected visit to Taiwan says nothing about ...

Shortly afterward, Reuters reported that several Chinese warplanes had flown close to the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Any trip by Pelosi "will greatly threaten peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, severely undermine China-US relations and lead to a very serious situation and grave consequences," senior Chinese diplomat Liu Xiaoming tweeted late Monday night. But I don't know what the status of it is." Now, experts say it's becoming clear that this effort missed the point. It's not new. To foreign policy experts, the White House's effort to convince Beijing that it must distinguish between the behavior of the top Democrat in Congress and the intent of the Democratic administration is a futile one. "I think we've laid out very clearly that if she goes — if she goes — it's not without precedent. The fact that U.S. policy toward Taiwan is deliberately ambiguous only serves to make it that much more difficult to draw any meaningful distinction between what Pelosi is doing and what the White House is saying. Given that Pelosi is traveling aboard a U.S. military aircraft for the entirety of her trip to Asia this week, the quickly escalating military tensions between China and Taiwan carry especially high risks. - The fact that U.S. policy toward Taiwan is deliberately ambiguous has only made it more difficult for the White House to draw a distinction between what Pelosi is doing and what Biden is saying. WASHINGTON — As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reportedly prepares to land in Taiwan on Tuesday evening for a long-rumored official visit, her trip has exposed a rare schism between the Biden White House and the most powerful Democrat in Congress. - The Biden White House has tried for weeks to convince Beijing and the world that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's expected visit to Taiwan says nothing about U.S. policy toward China or Taiwan.

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Milestones in relations between the U.S., China and Taiwan (swissinfo.ch)

1949 - Mao Zedong's communists take power in Beijing after defeating Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang (KMT) nationalists in a civil war. The KMT-led government ...

2005 - Beijing adopts an anti-secession bill in March that makes secession by Taiwan illegal. It obliges Washington to help provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. 1996 - Third Taiwan Strait Crisis: Taiwan holds its first direct presidential vote. In reaction, Beijing launches missiles into waters near Taiwan; Washington dispatches aircraft carries to the region. 1954-1955 - The First Taiwan Strait Crisis: Beijing launches artillery attacks on some Taiwan-controlled outlying islands off China's southeastern coast. China does not seize control of any Taiwan-held island.

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Taiwan braces for Chinese show of force, with Pelosi set to visit (The Washington Post)

TAIPEI, Taiwan — The Chinese and Taiwanese militaries dispatched fighter jets, ordered military exercises and bolstered combat readiness as Taiwan prepared ...

“Tonight we call it fried chicken of democracy,” he said of his plan to hand out 100 portions. Lam said he was invited to attend an event Wednesday with the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. Embassy, but was not told whether Pelosi would be there. “Pelosi’s visit now has a very different meaning,” said Chu Shulong, professor of political science and international relations at Tsinghua University, comparing Pelosi’s trip to Gingrich’s visit. “Taiwan will be the biggest winner. In the last Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995-1996, China sent missiles that landed near Taiwan. Pelosi would be the first House speaker to travel to Taiwan since Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) in 1997. “The United States should and must take full responsibility for this,” she said. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has pledged to “reunify” Taiwan with China by force if necessary. Chinese maritime authorities, meanwhile, announced additional military exercises in the South China Sea and live-fire drills in the Bohai Sea, near the Korean Peninsula, this week. China banned food shipments on Monday from more than 100 Taiwanese exporters. Taiwanese media outlets reported that Pelosi was expected to meet with President Tsai Ing-wen, lawmakers and human rights activists on Wednesday. The impending visit has drawn outrage from China, which for years has sought to diplomatically isolate Taiwan and views such exchanges with high-level foreign dignitaries as support for the island’s formal independence.

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Pelosi Visiting Taiwan Is the Kind of Virtue Signaling the U.S-China ... (TIME)

Pelosi Visiting Taiwan Is the Kind of Virtue Signaling the U.S-China Relationship Can Do Without ... US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seen during a news conference ...

And even back then, Beijing has reacted to these kinds of visits largely by accelerating military exercises in the area and sending aircraft across the Taiwan Strait’s median-line. To its credit, the Biden administration appears to grasp just how controversial Pelosi’s trip would be in the eyes of Chinese officials. When former Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar made a visit in August 2020, China dispatched J-11 and J-10 fighter planes into Taiwan’s side of the median-line. Biden’s actions to date haven’t helped dissipate the fog. But we should be clear about the cost-benefit analysis. As one might expect, Chinese officials have responded angrily to the notion of the most senior U.S. lawmaker grasping hands with Taiwanese officials. And a large-scale security crisis will likely be averted. During his hours-long call with President Biden on July 28, Xi warned the U.S. to avoid “playing with fire” on the Taiwan issue, a phrase he used during a virtual summit with Biden last November. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian also ominously warned of “forceful responses” if Pelosi lands on Taiwanese soil. The question is why Pelosi believes such a visit is necessary, particularly at a time when President Xi Jinping has an incentive to elevate his hawkish bona-fides as he seeks to attain a norm-breaking third term. It’s a scenario both powers should avoid. This isn’t the first time a senior U.S. politician has visited the self-governing, democratically run island that China considers a breakaway province. Pelosi isn’t even the first speaker of the House to visit; that precedent-setting trip was made by Newt Gingrich in April 1997.

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FirstFT: Chinese fighter jets fly close to Taiwan ahead of Pelosi's visit (Financial Times)

Good morning. We start today with rising tensions between China and the US surrounding the planned trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. The 82-year-old ...

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Taiwan Tensions Raise Risks in One of Busiest Shipping Lanes (Bloomberg)

Trade routes to Europe, Middle East run through Taiwan Strait · 88% of largest container ships transited waterway this year.

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Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan amid soaring tensions with China (The Guardian)

US politician's visit appears to prompt high levels of military movement among Chinese, Taiwanese and US militaries.

Pelosi is expected to stay in the Grand Hyatt hotel on the outskirts of Taipei city, before meeting Tsai on Wednesday morning. Taiwan officials would not comment on the highly anticipated visit before Pelosi’s arrival, other than to say it always welcomes the visits of foreign friends. Among the concerns about China’s reaction were fears it would send PLA aircraft to intercept or tail her plane into Taiwan’s airspace. On Tuesday afternoon, almost 300,000 people were tracking a US air force flight that was potentially carrying the speaker’s delegation. Some, including senior Taiwanese figures who spoke on condition of anonymity, expected any significant act to occur after Pelosi departed, to avoid a confrontation with US military assets. According to multiple social media posts it also drove dozens of tanks and other armoured vehicles through the Chinese mainland city of Xiamen, which is just three miles (5km) across the water from Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen Island.

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Nancy Pelosi arrives in Taiwan as China ratchets up military activity (Financial Times)

Beijing accuses House Speaker of stirring up trouble with highest-profile US visit in 25 years.

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China sends warships to surround Taiwan amid Pelosi visit (Politico)

The Pentagon has deployed four U.S. warships, including an aircraft carrier, in waters east of Taiwan.

The White House said Monday that it has no interest in escalating tensions with China and that it “will not take the bait or engage in saber rattling.” She also opposed China’s bid to host the 2008 Olympics and supported the 2019 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. What we have said is that there is no reason that this visit should escalate tensions in any way whatsoever,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Fox News’ “Fox & Friends” Tuesday morning. Pelosi’s arrival in Taipei on Tuesday evening confirmed the speaker’s decision to go ahead with her visit — which had been reported on for weeks without official confirmation from her office — despite China’s threats. Local newspapers first reported that Pelosi would arrive in Taiwan Tuesday night and that she would spend the night there. The carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, is positioned far from Taiwan, according to one U.S. official. Experts raised alarms over the exercise, with some noting that the drills would overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters. The House speaker said in her Tuesday statement that the delegation’s discussions with Taiwan’s leaders “will focus on our support for our partner and on promoting our shared interests, including advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific region.” She also asserted that the visit “in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy.” In a Washington Post op-ed published just after her arrival in Taiwan, Pelosi wrote that the U.S. must stand by its vow in the Taiwan Relations Act — signed into law by President Jimmy Carter — to support the self-defense of Taiwan. She said the island republic is “under threat” by Beijing and that China has “dramatically intensified tensions with Taiwan” in recent years by ramping up military patrols and launching cyberattacks on Taiwanese government agencies. “We don’t support Taiwan independence, but we absolutely do support the right and the prerogative of congressional leaders to include Speaker Pelosi to visit Taiwan if that’s what she wants to do,” Kirby said on CNN after Pelosi touched down in Taiwan on Tuesday. Biden administration officials have also emphasized in recent days that the United States official position on Taiwan remains unchanged and that Pelosi would be one of many members of Congress that have visited Taiwan over the past few years. The Pentagon earlier Tuesday deployed four U.S. warships, including an aircraft carrier, in waters east of Taiwan on what the U.S. Navy said were routine deployments.

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As Pelosi visits Taiwan, don't miss the action on China in Congress (DefenseNews.com)

Those interested in supporting the free people of Taiwan and pushing back on increasingly aggressive behavior from Beijing should not miss an important ...

As we have argued before, combined training and planning that particularly emphasizes the coordination of U.S. and Taiwanese air and naval forces is the most cost-effective way to improve war-winning capabilities. As the Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers the bill tomorrow, the title on sanctions may need to be amended or dropped. For those who think that Taiwan is a rich country and should handle Chinese aggression on its own, it’s good to remember China’s GDP is more than 20 times that of Taiwan. If Washington and Taipei permit the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait to continue to erode, Beijing may decide in the next few years that it can accomplish its political objectives on the island with military force. One hopes that Pelosi’s trip this week does not result in military conflict. Thankfully, there is growing appreciation in Congress regarding the need for urgent action, as demonstrated by the proliferation of Taiwan-related bills. Not surprisingly, as the People’s Liberation Army has become more powerful and the Chinese Communist Party’s confidence has grown, Beijing has employed its military forces more aggressively near Taiwan. Sections within that title would create, among other things, a Taiwan Security Assistance Initiative, a Comprehensive Training Program, Military Planning Mechanisms and multiple iterative assessment efforts. All eyes are understandably on Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan this week as Beijing issues threats and rattles its saber. The security assistance program would provide $4.5 billion over four years in much-needed appropriations. As Menendez and Graham rightly note in their bill, the “security of Taiwan and the ability for the people of Taiwan to determine their own future is fundamental to United States interests and values.” The problem is Beijing believes that the relative ability of Taiwan and the United States to defend those interests and values has declined precipitously and is weaker than ever.

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US House Speaker Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, defying Beijing (1 News)

The visit has angered China which quickly announced that it would conduct military manoeuvres in retaliation for her presence.

Taiwan and China split in 1949 after the Communists won a civil war on the mainland. The flight tracking site Flightradar24 said Pelosi's aircraft, an Air Force version of the Boeing 737, was the most tracked in the world on Tuesday evening (US time) with 300,000 viewers. “Some American politicians are playing with fire on the issue of Taiwan," Wang said in a statement. US officials have said the American military will increase its movements in the Indo-Pacific region during Pelosi's visit. Pelosi has used her position to be an emissary for the US on the global stage. Two buildings in the capital lit up LED displays with words of welcome, including the iconic Taipei 101 building, which said “Welcome to Taiwan, Speaker Pelosi.” She has long challenged China on human rights, including in 2009, when she hand-delivered a letter to then-President Hu Jintao calling for the release of political prisoners. Beijing sees official American contact with Taiwan as encouragement to make the island’s decades-old de facto independence permanent, a step US leaders say they don’t support. The statement called trips by members of Congress to Taiwan routine. Taiwan's foreign minister and other Taiwanese and American officials greeted Pelosi on the tarmac at Taipei's international airport. China’s official Xinhua News said the army planned to conduct live-fire drills from August 4 to 7 across multiple locations. The People’s Liberation Army said the manoeuvres would take place starting on Wednesday in the waters and skies near Taiwan and include the firing of long-range ammunition in the Taiwan Strait.

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Taiwan: Nancy Pelosi trip labelled as 'extremely dangerous' by Beijing (BBC News)

The highest-ranking US politician to visit Taiwan in 25 years arrives despite warnings from China.

Yet she is also a long-standing critic of Beijing. This is absolutely consistent with it." is under threat". As Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Ms Pelosi is second in line for the US presidency after the vice-president. In her statement, Ms Pelosi said: "America's solidarity with the 23 million people of Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy." It accused Ms Pelosi, the most senior US politician in 25 years to visit the island China claims as its own, of "playing with fire".

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What 3 past Taiwan Strait crises can teach us about U.S.-China ... (NPR)

Both the U.S. and China stepped up military activity in the region ahead of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit. Here's what is different now from ...

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Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, voicing US 'solidarity' as China condemns ... (RNZ)

US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan late on a trip immediately condemned by China condemned as a threat to peace and ...

"The USA is a state provocateur," Zakharova said. Russia - itself locked in confrontation with the West over its invasion of Ukraine - condemned Pelosi's visit. Four US warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, were positioned in waters east of Taiwan on what the US Navy called routine deployments. Pelosi, travelling with six other American lawmakers, is the first US House speaker to visit Taiwan since 1997. Chinese warplanes buzzed the line dividing the Taiwan Strait before her arrival. The ministry said it lodged a strong protest with the United States.

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China vows to encircle Taiwan with military drills in response to ... (POLITICO.eu)

The military response to Pelosi's trip came swiftly. The People's Liberation Army — announcing that exercises were to begin Tuesday night — departed from an ...

The U.S. responded with its largest show of force in Asia since the Vietnam War, including sending an American aircraft carrier to sail close to Taiwan. The military response to Pelosi's trip came swiftly. Speaking a day before Pelosi’s trip, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized China’s moves on Taiwan at a U.N. conference. The proximity of the drills to Taiwan — which also include missile firing — will also ratchet up tensions over a potential conflagration. The show of force from Beijing is an unambiguous signal to the international community of how easily China could impose an effective trade stranglehold round the democratic island, which is a crucial to global supply chains because of its advanced microchip production. The dramatic surge in tensions presents the White House — which has expressed unease about her trip — with the alarming strategic prospect of having to contend with two major crises, just as it is taking the lead in supporting Ukraine in its defense against an invasion by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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China slams Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit as 'extremely dangerous' (Aljazeera.com)

Beijing says US politician is 'playing with fire' as she visits Taiwan amid heightened US-China tensions.

If that happens, it will provoke the US political establishment to reach a unanimous agreement to change the “One China Policy” in writing. Pelosi, travelling with six other American lawmakers, is the first US House speaker to visit Taiwan since 1997. “Beijing cannot afford to be perceived as unilaterally seeking to change what it agreed with the US back in 1979. The Chinese military has been put on high alert and will launch “targeted military operations” in response to her visit, the defence ministry said. “She compared her trip to Taiwan to her trip in April to Ukraine, as part of this international remit that she feels she has, to travel the world promoting democracy.” China has condemned the visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan as “extremely dangerous”, warning that the trip was a threat to stability in the region.

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Live updates: Nancy Pelosi to meet Taiwan President in ... (ABC News)

The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visits Taiwan's parliament and is due to meet with President Tsai Ing-wen, despite China ...

By Shiloh Payne By Shiloh Payne By Shiloh Payne "The USA is a state provocateur," Zakharova said. By Shiloh Payne By Shiloh Payne "I visited Ukraine a short time ago. By Shiloh Payne By Shiloh Payne By Shiloh Payne By Shiloh Payne By Shiloh Payne

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Pelosi praises Taiwan as 'one of the freest societies in the world' in ... (CNN)

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi praised Taiwan as "one of the freest societies in the world" on Wednesday morning local time in her first public remarks since ...

"And again, we come in friendship, we thank you for your leadership, we want the world to recognize that." Pelosi and the congressional delegation landed in Taipei on Tuesday, the first time in 25 years that a US House Speaker has visited Taiwan, a self-governing island, which China claims as part of its territory. Later Wednesday, Pelosi is expected to meet Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen.

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China restricts trade with Taiwan amid tensions over Pelosi trip (Aljazeera.com)

China's Commerce Ministry said in a notice on Wednesday it had halted exports of sand, a key material used in construction, and suspended imports of Taiwanese ...

“However, that will hurt China itself, too, as so many Chinese firms rely on the semiconductors.” China’s foreign ministry has slammed the visit as “extremely dangerous” and accused the US side of “playing with fire”. China’s General Administration of Customs said the food imports were halted due to the presence of pesticide and the coronavirus in some shipments, while the Ministry of Commerce said it had suspended sand exports in line with unspecified legal provisions.

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Live updates: Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan as China says House speaker ... (The Washington Post)

TAIPEI, Taiwan — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is expected to meet Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and other lawmakers Wednesday, defying threats ...

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Tuesday at a meeting in Shanghai that U.S. politicians “playing with fire” on the issue of Taiwan would “come to no good end,” according to a transcript released by the Foreign Ministry. At the same time, we will not engage in saber-rattling.” China’s claims over Taiwan form a core part of the ideology of the ruling Communist Party. Beijing sees official visits by high-ranking foreigners as lending support to pro-independence camps and giving credence to the idea of Taiwan as a sovereign nation.

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Explainer: China's trouble with Taiwan (1 News)

The situation starts to get messy again during the Chinese Civil War. In 1949, the losing nationalist government fled to Taiwan and set up the Republic of China ...

"The Government will not want to be antagonistic, nor should it be. "Taiwan has strong Chinese cultural roots so it has shown that a multi-party democracy can work within China too... From the Dutch to the Spanish and Japanese, the island of Taiwan has bounced between nations looking to control it. "Taiwan is our eighth-largest export market… US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the policy hasn't changed. "Pelosi's message to Taiwan is that the people of the US support democracy in the region and its commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act is strong," he told 1News. "But it also reflects the poor state of US-China relations".

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Why relations between China and Taiwan are so tense (PBS NewsHour)

Differences over Taiwan's status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland. Conflict over Taiwan also has the potential to be a flash ...

Beijing has pressured countries not to sign free trade agreements with Taiwan. A handful of countries have signed free trade pacts with the island; New Zealand and Singapore are the only developed economies to sign such agreements. It restricted tourism to Taiwan, and the number of mainland tourists visiting Taiwan fell from a high of over 4 million in 2015 to 2.7 million in 2019. Much of that can be attributed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chip maker and the top supplier for Apple and other U.S. companies. Its objective is to wear down Taiwan and prompt the island’s people to conclude that their best option is unification with the mainland. Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the United States has for decades attempted to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacked. In 2020, the Economist’s Democracy Index labeled Taiwan a “full democracy” for the first time. It is based on several documents, such as three U.S.-China communiqués reached in 1972, 1978, and 1982; the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1979; and the recently declassified “ Six Assurances,” which President Ronald Reagan conveyed to Taiwan in 1982. Beijing claims that Taiwan is bound by an understanding known as the 1992 Consensus, which was reached between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) party that then ruled Taiwan. However, the two sides don’t agree on the content of this so-called consensus, and it was never intended to address the question of Taiwan’s legal status. The KMT’s chief rival party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has never endorsed the understanding laid out in the 1992 Consensus. President Tsai, who is also the leader of the DPP, has refused to explicitly accept the consensus. Some analysts fear a Chinese attack on Taiwan has the potential to draw the United States into a war with China. Beijing asserts that there is only “one China” and that Taiwan is part of it. In Taiwan, which has its own democratically elected government and is home to 23 million people, political leaders have differing views on the island’s status and relations with the mainland.

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The Taiwan Connection (The New York Times)

Hello. This is your Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, a weeknight guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

The other big difference, militarily, is that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a land invasion. If there were conflict in Taiwan, that fact in itself tells us there would be much more disruption to the world economy. Both are partners of the U.S., and the U.S. is defending Ukraine with sanctions and weapons. Some U.S. officials think the U.S. needs to accelerate efforts to get proper weapons and proper training to Taiwan. Because of the wake-up call, it has changed the momentum for these actions in the State Department and the U.S. military. Now there’s a debate about the lessons. It’s hard to say because I don’t see a medium-term victory for either side in Ukraine right now. As recently as July, Bill Burns, the C.I.A. director, said that China might have been taken aback by the difficulties that Russia has had in Ukraine and that China’s conclusion, for now, might be that if it were to try an invasion of Taiwan, then it might decide that it needs to have a massive, overwhelming force before it goes forward, meaning that it would want to improve its military capabilities. One could argue that there would be much more economically at stake if a conflict were to erupt over Taiwan because China’s place in the world economy is much greater than Russia’s. It’s the world’s second-largest economy. But those were already in progress before the war in Ukraine. It has very integrated ties economically with countries all over the world, including the U.S. If China were to try something with Taiwan and if the U.S. were able to form a sanctions coalition like it did against Russia, China’s growth and development would be harmed to a much greater degree. It would want to modernize its military, especially its navy and air force, and that would take some time if it has intentions like that. Two people were killed in the attack.

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China Warns Airlines to Avoid Areas Near Taiwan as Tensions Rise (Bloomberg)

China warned airlines operating in Asia to avoid flying in areas around Taiwan where it is conducting military exercises in response to US House Speaker ...

An official notice was sent late on Tuesday Hong Kong time, designating six areas of airspace as “danger zones,” according to carriers who received the message and Jang Chang Seog, a Korean transport ministry official. China warned airlines operating in Asia to avoid flying in areas around Taiwan where it is conducting military exercises in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island.

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China's Disinformation Hopes to Weaken Taiwan's Resolve (Foreign Policy)

As U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan today, rumors and false stories flew around the Chinese language online sphere.

There is legitimate frustration that the Western press do not understand the nuances in Taiwan and are getting it wrong, perhaps at times intentionally. Going after her is for both electoral purposes, to replace the DPP with a more friendly pro-China party, but also for military ones. The other two focus on a Taiwanese local audience less visible to outsiders. Some of the most vigorous critics are extremely anti-China and act out of genuine fear for the island’s survival. The cable connects Taiwan to the mainland, creating a dependency on the mainland. Two of the four main Taiwan news outlets held substantial financial ties to the mainland. Spikes in recent discussions and disinformation center around three key nodes in Taiwan: military preparedness, Tsai, and the West’s relationship with Taiwan—all with an endgame of subverting Taiwan’s independence. Several of these companies have strong ties to the mainland. Tsai’s emphasis on the satellite system, however, slows conventional military preparations—to the frustration of many. That means the original goal, a peaceful—at least on the surface—reunification, looks increasingly unlikely. A coordinated study among leading international research institutions analyzing the intersection between tech and social science—Graphika, the Institute for the Future’s Digital Intelligence Laboratory, and the International Republican Institute— produced an August 2020 report with detailed evidence of China’s direct and likely interference in Taiwan’s politics. Although the everyday attacks on Taiwan are abstract, one of the most threatening scenarios for Taiwan is a physical assault on a key information line.

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Nancy Pelosi Arrives in Taiwan, Raising Tensions With China: Live ... (The New York Times)

The trip, the highest-level U.S. visit to the island since 1997, takes place in the face of serious objections from Beijing.

Before that meeting, Mr. Xi will be keen to project an image of strength at home and abroad, particularly on the question of Taiwan. And in the past year, Chinese military planes have increasingly probed the airspace near Taiwan, prompting Taiwanese fighter jets to scramble. The site was attacked around 5 p.m., according to the statement, several hours before Ms. Pelosi’s landing. “It provokes the situation, leads to more tensions.” In a statement released shortly after her arrival, Ms. Pelosi said the visit was a sign of America’s “unwavering commitment” to supporting Taiwan’s democracy. Its foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, told reporters, “Our position on the existence of only one China remains unchanged.” We are also committed now, more than ever, to all elements of the Taiwan Relations Act.” In recent years, China has lured away several nations that recognize Taiwan as a country and cut it off from major international agencies like the World Health Organization. She is also scheduled to attend a banquet at Taipei Guest House and visit the National Human Rights Museum. He said he was most worried about the military response from mainland China — in particular, what China might do after Ms. Pelosi leaves. In Taiwan, many are inured to threats from China, which claims the island as its own territory. A video provided by a Tibetan activist, Tashi Tsering, showed people on Tuesday night gathering outside the Grand Hyatt Taipei, where Ms. Pelosi was expected to spend the night.

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Nancy Pelosi Taiwan visit sparks pro-CCP protests (New Zealand Herald)

Ms Pelosi is the highest ranking US politician to visit Taiwan since then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich landed on the island in 1997. The Chinese government views ...

She's going with the flow, going with pushing US hegemony to contain China. For what? "If we don't warn the Yanks in Taiwan, then we will be like [Taiwanese President] Tsai Ing-wen who is acquiescing to the Yanks," she was quoted as saying. We don't get anything out of it." The Chinese government views any official visits to Taiwan by senior politicians from other countries as a provocation. We sincerely hope for early reunification." In Taiwan, hundreds of civilians gathered in different locations to either welcome or protest Ms Pelosi's arrival, The Guardian reported, with independence groups outside the airport holding signs saying "I love Pelosi" and "shut up China".

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

Taiwan fears PLA drills over Nancy Pelosi visit could amount to ... (Financial Times)

China's military exercises aim to express 'maximum displeasure' with US House Speaker's trip.

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Image courtesy of "CNN"

Questions mount over whether Pelosi's Taiwan trip is worth the ... (CNN)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, center, arrives at the Legislative Yuan in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, August 3, 2022. (CNN) ...

Even talking about disrupting the Strait could send global markets plunging, exacerbating pain for Americans already struggling with the high cost of living in an inflation crisis that threatens to doom Democrats in the midterms. He warned provocations could include firing missiles in the Taiwan Strait or around Taiwan and large-scale breaches of Taiwan's air defense identification zone by warplanes. And Pelosi bookended a political career that saw her unfold a pro-democracy banner in Beijing in 1991 with an anti-Chinese Communist Party tour de force in Taiwan as fears grow China may eventually try to take the island by force. If Pelosi's visit accelerates Xi's urgency and resolve in seeking to take over Taiwan by military force, it will also have been counterproductive. A female political icon, she defied the all-male top echelons of the Chinese Communist leadership and refused to be bullied -- and sat down with another pioneering female leader, President Tsai. She made a stirring stand for democracy -- a core American value. Critical to global supply chains that are already under pressure following the Covid-19 pandemic, the Strait is traversed by much of the world's maritime container traffic. The US does not recognize Taiwan as a country. "This travel is consistent with the United States' One China policy to which we are committed. So if Pelosi's visit -- a personal rebuke to Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has made the takeover of Taiwan an existential quest -- permanently worsens already poor US-China relations and brings forward what some see as an inevitable superpower confrontation, it might turn out to be a massive miscalculation. While that may not be Pelosi's intention, misconceptions can drive military escalations in such a volatile foreign policy relationship. It is unfolding as a generational tussle between two civilizations keen to imprint their values, economic systems and strategic hegemony on the rest of the world. The imagery of the US House speaker bolstering a democracy under China's giant shadow could become one of the signature moments in US Asia-Pacific foreign policy.

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US will not abandon Taiwan as China protests - Pelosi (New Zealand Herald)

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, meeting leaders in Taiwan despite warnings from China, said she and other members of Congress in a visiting delegation are ...

"Madam Speaker's visit to Taiwan with the delegation, without fear, is the strongest defence of upholding human rights and consolidation of the values of democracy and freedom," Tsai Chi-chang, vice president of Taiwan's legislature, said in welcome. Pelosi noted that support for Taiwan is bipartisan in Congress and praised the island's democracy. Tsai, thanking Pelosi for her decades of support for Taiwan, presented the speaker with a civilian honour, the Order of the Propitious Clouds. She was more pointed about Chinese threats in her remarks than Pelosi was. Pelosi's trip has heightened US-China tensions more than visits by other members of Congress because of her high-level position as leader of the House of Representatives. She is the first speaker of the house to come to Taiwan in 25 years, since Newt Gingrich in 1997. "Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy," she said in a short speech during a meeting with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, meeting leaders in Taiwan despite warnings from China, said she and other members of Congress in a visiting delegation are showing they will not abandon their commitment to the self-governing island.

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China Hits Taiwan With Trade Curbs Amid Tensions Over Pelosi (Bloomberg)

Some fish, fruit imports suspended, sand exports banned · Bilateral 2021 trade between China, Taiwan at $328.3 billion.

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Taiwan visits 'not up to the CCP to decide' - Seymour (RNZ)

National and Labour are toeing the one-China line, but ACT leader David Seymour says he would be happy to visit Taiwan if invited.

The one-China principle is a universal consensus of the international community and a basic norm in international relations." What New Zealand will keep calling for though is ongoing diplomacy and dialogue to overcome what are tensions, particularly around the Taiwan Strait." The US side has shown the world what a bully it is. "The fact that they even think that's an acceptable position shows we've got problems." "China will definitely take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to the US Speaker's visit. We have long been a nation that in the face of tensions like these that we'll call for dialogue.

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Pelosi Lands in Taiwan, Voicing 'Solidarity' and Defying China (The San Francisco Standard)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday in a closely watched and hotly debated visit to the politically contested island.

Pelosi cited China’s ramp-up of military aircraft near Taiwan and cyberattacks on Taiwanese government agencies that she described as a possible precursor to an invasion of the island. We do always strive for a peaceful resolution, and hopefully that continues on with with more direct lines for conversation rather than threats,” said Tzou. Pelosi is the first high-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan since then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich traveled there in 1997. A small group of counter-protesters accused the larger anti-war group of supporting China’s communist government. The U.S. has long acknowledged—but not endorsed—that policy. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, right, being welcomed by Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, left, after landing at Songshan Airport in Taipei, Taiwan on August 2, 2022.

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Nancy Pelosi vows US support for Taiwan as officials warn of China ... (Financial Times)

The comments from the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, made during a meeting with Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen, heartened Taiwanese hoping for ...

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Pelosi says US will not abandon Taiwan during controversial visit (1 News)

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, meeting leaders in Taiwan despite warnings from China, said Wednesday (NZT) that she and other members of Congress in a ...

Pelosi noted that support for Taiwan is bipartisan in Congress and praised the island's democracy. "We will firmly uphold our nation's sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defence for democracy." "Madam Speaker's visit to Taiwan with the delegation, without fear, is the strongest defence of upholding human rights and consolidation of the values of democracy and freedom," Tsai Chi-chang, vice president of Taiwan’s legislature, said in welcome. Pelosi is visiting a human rights museum in Taipei that details the history of the island's martial law era before she departs for South Korea, the next stop on an Asia tour that also includes Singapore, Malaysia and Japan. She stopped short of saying that the US would defend Taiwan militarily, emphasising that Congress is "committed to the security of Taiwan, in order to have Taiwan be able to most effectively defend themselves." Pelosi addressed Beijing's threats, saying that she hopes it's clear "while China has stood in the way of Taiwan going to certain meetings, that they understand they will not stand in the way of people coming to Taiwan as a show of friendship and of support."

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US, China and Taiwan visit: 'Positive dialogue' needed, Ardern says (New Zealand Herald)

It comes as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrives in Taiwan amid 'heightened tensions'.

"We really want the US and China to resolve their own tensions. New Zealand does engage with Chinese Taipei economically through APEC, that's long been a tradition." "There have been visits by MPs over the years. Asked if Pelosi's visit was "helpful" amid current tensions, Ardern said it was "not for New Zealand or for me to cast judgment on the decisions from other leaders as to where they visit and why". "I'm pleased to see that the both presidents from China and the United States have recently had both lengthy calls, that is positive dialogue and diplomacy is what we need in these tense times." Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says "positive dialogue" is needed in "tense times" as China and the United States trade barbs amid Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

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China and the US are facing off – and in Taiwan we are caught ... (The Guardian)

Nancy Pelosi's visit has put the world on edge. But for Taiwanese people, life has to carry on, says magazine editor Brian Hioe.

They quipped that I should try to get the ceremony or the calmness of the beach in the shot – to show that, in Taiwan, life simply carries on. The issue points to part of Taiwan’s conundrum, in that it is deeply economically interlinked with China. I was there to observe the Qataban harvest festival of the indigenous Kebalan people. It was only incorporated into China during the Qing dynasty in the 17th century – but the Qing empire only controlled part of the island and did not seem particularly interested in it, ceding Taiwan to Japan after the Sino-Japanese war in 1895. When news of Pelosi’s expected visit broke, I happened to be in Hualien, on the rural eastern seaboard, where the mountainous terrain that characterises central Taiwan meets the beach. But there is also nothing new about Chinese military threats directed at Taiwan. Beijing considers the island to be sovereign Chinese territory, even though it is de facto independent; the US is Taiwan’s security guarantor in the event of a Chinese invasion.

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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the U.S. will not abandon Taiwan ... (NPR)

TAIPEI, Taiwan — U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, meeting leaders in Taiwan despite warnings from China, said Wednesday that she and other members of ...

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China will not stand in the way of people coming to Taiwan: US ... (Anadolu Agency)

President Tsai Ing-wen says Taiwan 'committed to maintaining status quo' across Taiwan Strait - Anadolu Agency.

I don’t know whether that’s a reason or an excuse, because they didn’t say anything when the men came.” In her discussions with the visiting American delegation, Tsai said she told Pelosi that Taiwan remains “committed to maintaining the status quo across the (Taiwan) Strait.” “I just hope that it’s really clear that while China has stood in the way of Taiwan participating and going to certain meetings, that they understand that they will not stand in the way of people coming to Taiwan,” Pelosi said at a joint news conference with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen.

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Pelosi jabs at Xi before leaving Taiwan (Politico)

She waved off China's military action response to her visit, saying that “whatever China was going to do they'll do in their own good time.”

Because they didn’t say anything when the men came,” Pelosi said. A group of six U.S. lawmakers, including Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), visited the island in April. China ramped up its actions and rhetoric once Pelosi arrived in Taipei on Tuesday, announcing it would conduct targeted drills and missile tests around Taiwan, and sending aircraft into the island’s air defense zone.

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China hits Taiwan with trade restrictions after Pelosi's visit - CNN (CNN)

China has suspended some trade with Taiwan in apparent retribution for a visit by the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the self-governing island.

The Taiwan Strait is also an important shipping lane for vessels carrying goods between Asia and the West. this week, TSMC chairman Mark Liu said a war between China and Taiwan would make everyone lose. President Xi Jinping is expected to seek a historic third term in power at the meeting. Her comments came after she was asked whether the latest export suspension are intended to punish Taiwan for Pelosi's visit, which she declined to answer directly, saying "please ask relevant department in charge." China has previously banned imports of some Taiwanese products amid escalating tensions. In a separate statement, Chinese customs officials said the import suspension of citrus fruit is a result of "pest control" and "excessive pesticide residues," and cited "Covid prevention" for the suspension on seafood imports.

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Nancy Pelosi pledges US solidarity with Taiwan amid alarm at ... (The Guardian)

The House speaker has vowed China will not stand in the way of Taiwan's friendships with the US as Beijing reacts to visit with outrage.

According to a tentative schedule Pelosi was also expected to visit the Jingmei Human Rights Cultural Park, in Taipei, after a lunch with Tsai and other dignitaries. Vice foreign minister Xie Feng voiced “strong protests” over Pelosi’s visit to the democratic self-governing island during his talk with ambassador Nicholas Burns. “Military exercises are unnecessary,” she said. At a press conference on Wednesday, Pelosi questioned the motivations of Chinese president Xi Jinping when asked about his strong response to her visit. It accused China of violating international law with its plans to breach Taiwan’s sovereign space. “I don’t know if that’s a reason or an excuse.”

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China to begin series of unprecedented live-fire drills off Taiwan coast (The Guardian)

Island accuses Beijing of planning to breach sovereign territory in wake of controversial visit by Nancy Pelosi.

Japanese analysts said the northern drills were also a clear warning to their government about islands over which Tokyo and Beijing both claim ownership. But Uni-president, the parent company, told local media it suspected it had been hacked. There are also fears of an escalation in cyberwarfare and disinformation. But as the American left, Taiwan was facing days of military activity which threaten to escalate into a fourth Taiwan strait crisis. Taipei has remained defiant in its rhetoric. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner.

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How Taiwan reacted to Pelosi's visit, from 'welcome' to 'American witch' (The Washington Post)

“The more unhappy the [Chinese Communist Party] is, the happier I am,” Ingrid Ho, 35, a Taipei resident, told The Washington Post on Wednesday. “Pelosi coming ...

“We expect that they will continue to react over a longer-term horizon,” he added. Zamake Chang, 30, an engineer from Taoyuan, said Wednesday that he spent the day looking at flights from Taiwan’s main airport to see whether any have been disrupted. On Thursday, China blacklisted two Taiwanese nonprofits affiliated with Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, a move that local reports say is a response to Pelosi’s visit. One held up a sign calling Pelosi an “American witch.” Pelosi has been a longtime critic of the Chinese Communist Party, winning her fans among those who support Taiwan’s independence. “Maybe it’s that Taiwanese people are used to being scared,” Ho said.

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Pelosi's Taiwan trip leaves Asian countries nervously awaiting ... (NPR)

When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived late Tuesday night in Taiwan, its tallest building — iconic landmark Taipei 101 — lit up with words of welcome, ...

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U.S. watches anxiously as China threatens missile launches near ... (Politico)

The Chinese navy is positioning warships around the island, including its two aircraft carriers that have left port in recent days, in what officials described ...

“They’re expanding their strategic nuclear capability and capacity, and long-range detection and targeting — the U.S. no longer has a monopoly on that.” Beijing warned commercial airlines to avoid wide swaths of airspace encircling Taiwan between Aug. 4 and 7 in what amounts to a no-fly zone over major commercial routes. John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, on Tuesday said the U.S. will not engage in “saber-rattling.” Four U.S. warships are already close by in the Pacific, including the aircraft carriers USS Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln, on what the Navy said were routine deployments. But this time, the drills are closer to Taiwan, and China’s naval might has grown significantly over the past 25 years. Taipei is trying to figure out how to reroute critical both ship and air traffic, as the closure zones are strategically positioned outside of Taiwan’s largest ports, forming a ring around the island. The tweets include the hashtag “FreeandOpenIndoPacific.” It remains unclear what role China’s two aircraft carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, might play in the exercises, but both ships have left their ports in recent days and are at sea. The Chinese defense ministry released a map of six zones surrounding the island where it plans to conduct the drills, some of which potentially overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters. China has never before flown aircraft or launched missiles into Taiwan’s territorial waters — something that could happen during the drills, said Bonnie Glaser, an East Asia analyst at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The Chinese navy is positioning warships around the island, including its two aircraft carriers that have left port in recent days, in what officials described as a blockade. But there are signs Beijing is planning more provocative military actions during the upcoming exercise.

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Defiant Pelosi leaves Taiwan as China puts on military show (1 News)

Before leaving, a calm but resolute Nancy Pelosi repeated previous remarks about the world facing “a choice between democracy and autocracy.”

That visit was also about human rights and what she called dangerous technology transfers to “rogue countries.” Pelosi noted that congressional support for Taiwan is bipartisan, and she praised the island’s democracy. In Washington, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, sought to tamp down fears. Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said a Taiwanese citizen was detained on suspicion of inciting separatism. She also met with some of Taiwan’s most prominent rights activists, including an exiled former Hong Kong bookseller who was detained by Chinese authorities, Lam Wing-kee. After a trip that drew China’s wrath, a defiant Nancy Pelosi concluded her visit to Taiwan overnight with a pledge that the American commitment to democracy on the self-governing island and elsewhere “remains ironclad.”

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Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit is over. Now come the aftershocks ... (Grid News)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), left, poses with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen at the president's office on Wednesday in Taipei, Taiwan. Handout/Getty ...

And certainly, some people have pointed out that any amount of military intimidation is not good and becoming accustomed to living under that sword is not necessarily healthy for Taiwan in the long run. I think they think this is the U.S. using all its little levers to do sneaky things that add up to a policy of creeping support toward Taiwan, permanent separation from the mainland. I don’t think the Beijing government wants a war with anybody at this moment — for precisely the reasons that were laid out earlier in this conversation. And I just think there’s a lot of good reasons not to gratuitously undermine Taiwan’s security and the relationship between the PRC and the United States. I think that would be hard to believe for people from many political backgrounds in a parliamentary system; it’s inconceivable that there would be that kind of daylight between the executive and legislative functions in government; but from the PRC perspective, it’s just laughable. SR: Yes. And it doesn’t matter to China. And that I think is the most important thing. You can talk to people in the State Department, in the intelligence community, in the Defense Department who have a range of views about things, and it’s possible that they talk to people in Congress outside the chain of command, which would not be fantastic, but they probably do. But I think what the Beijing leadership was trying to do in the run-up to this visit was to prevent it. Now they have got to show that they really meant it, that this is not just posturing in the hope of maybe influencing something around the margins. I read something yesterday that I thought was really interesting, that this whole Taiwan brouhaha that has been front and center in the U.S. for several days has not really been front-page news in the PRC domestic media. If the Beijing leadership decided that this visit by Nancy Pelosi was a big step forward in that trend, they wanted to draw a line here. In the end, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was brief — she spent 24 hours on the island — but it was historic and controversial, and its implications may be felt for a long time.

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