Cyclone nz

The forecaster states: "The system lies in a very favourable environment and could reach severe tropical cyclone intensity of cat 3 or above".

The environment remains very favourable, hence the risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea increases to HIGH from Wednesday." "The system is expected to start moving southeast later in the week, tracking to the far south of New Caledonia, then possibly towards the upper North Island in the outlook period (Monday). The tropical depression currently lies just to the south of Solomon Islands and is moving in a westerly direction as it intensifies.

More severe weather is possible in the upper North Island as a tropical cyclone looms this week in the Coral Sea. The threat to New Zealand isn't yet locked ...

It is certainly one to closely watch and many will be hoping it remains out at sea, which is a possibility," says Duncan. "While modelling has fairly high confidence of a tropical cyclone forming this week, global modelling is not yet in agreement about precise tracking in the New Zealand area, nor is it collectively consistent about how severe conditions could be for the North Island, which at this stage looks more exposed than the South Island does. It is also looking likely to become a "Severe" Tropical Cyclone (reaching over Category 3, on a scale up to Category 5), says WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan.

A tropical cyclone is forming this week over the Coral Sea and by Sunday/Monday may bring severe weather to New Zealand. We go through the various computer ...

This cold change lasts about 48 hours and fades by the weekend. Australia has cooler airflows around southern and south eastern regions. Also, Cyclone Freddy lies off from WA (poses no threat to land) and Queensland is expecting to be brushed by the new offshore Cyclone this week.

First published on MetService is keeping "all eyes on the Pacific" as a tropical cyclone is likely to pass over the Coral Sea this coming weekend and.

“It is important to emphasize that the path of the cyclone is still uncertain as the system has not yet developed. AT and contractors wanted a new bridge on Mill Flat Rd, near Riverhead, fully open Wednesday. “It’s probably going to be quite a big system and it could impact us as we head towards the end of this week – more specifically towards the end of Sunday and into the beginning of next week.” We keep our eyes on the tropics as a tropical low in the Coral Sea is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone this week In the Coral Sea, between New Caledonia and Australia in the Pacific Ocean, a cyclone was likely to develop from a tropical low-pressure system in the coming days. MetService has “all eyes on the islands” as a tropical low that could turn into a cyclone threatens to breach New Zealand’s coasts in the coming days.

The latest forecast shows the storm, forecast to bring the next lot of disastrous weather to Northland and Auckland, is forming faster than expected.

* That will bring relief to those in the upper North Island towards the end of the week. Auckland and the rest of the upper North Island will have a chance to clean up from the recent flooding and heavy rain this week as sunnier skies are forecast. The system is expected track to the far south of New Caledonia, then possibly southeast down the Coral Sea and Tasman Sea towards the upper North Island late Sunday or early next week. MetService now believes a low over the Coral Sea has a high chance of turning into a cyclone on Wednesday, a day earlier than it forecast on Monday. [potential cyclone](https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weather-news/131155290/new-tropical-cyclone-threatens-north-island) that could bring the next lot of disastrous wet summer weather for the upper North Island is now forecast to form a day earlier.

The tropical depression currently sits just south of the Solomon Islands.

MetService is warning upper North Island regions recovering from recent floods are likely to be in the firing line of yet another cyclone packed with poten.

Daily briefings for Big Auckland Clean Up are starting from 1pm today. “Aucklanders have made me proud, and humbled, to be your mayor. MetService meteorologist John Law said a tropical cyclone will form in the Coral Sea around Thursday. “The Big Auckland Fix Up will oversee the demolition of those properties that need to be; fixing those that can be; and working out what needs to be done with Auckland’s roads, rail, stormwater and other infrastructure to make sure it can cope better with similar events in future.” “It would be about getting Auckland ready for more events like the current floods, of which there are expected to be more as a result of climate change, for which Auckland will need to adapt,” he said. Law said the cyclone is expected to strengthen to a severe category three storm and in a tweet MetService indicated that the centre of the system would come close to New Zealand’s shores.

As NZ faces the risk of another ex-tropical cyclone, Jamie Morton answers five questions.

The models typically take between six and eight hours to run, and cover about a week into the future. Jamie Morton explains the tricky science of tracking cyclones. But how certain – or uncertain – is it that we’ll get an unwelcome visit? [MetService runs the Wellington TCWC](https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity), which monitors an area that stretches over the North Island and hundreds of kilometres east. The strongest winds and heaviest rain can then be found hundreds of kilometres from the cyclone’s centre - usually in a large area south of the centre. In the tropics, the strongest winds and most intense rain associated with a tropical cyclone usually occur just outside the “eye”, or cyclone centre. Across the globe, any cyclone activity is closely tracked by six “regional specialised meteorological centres” (RSMCs), and another six “tropical cyclone warning centres” (TCWCs). For meteorologists, that means the position of the cyclone centre is no longer a good indicator of where the most severe weather will hit. Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest activity - with an average of two or three named cyclones passing close to land each year - while at least one system typically came within 550km of Aotearoa, usually around February and March. Meteorologists emphasise that we don’t yet have an actual tropical cyclone - let alone one beating a furious path toward the North Island – but rather the strong potential for one to form out of an intensifying, westward-rolling tropical low in the Coral Sea dubbed 14U. “Current models do show it close to the North Island on Monday, but there’s still quite a lot of moving parts between now and then – and plenty of uncertainty regarding its track,” MetService meteorologist Andrew James told the Herald. [ex-tropical cyclone potentially veering toward New Zealand](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/weather-tropical-cyclone-likely-to-impact-upper-north-island-regions-still-recovering-from-floods/OI7VR2HBWJDLLNJGBKYUSN5TLU/) early next week is the last thing that storm-battered residents of the soaked upper North Island will be wanting to hear.

Weather models are beginning to align that a looming cyclone packing damaging winds, big seas and heavy rain is on course to strike upper North Island ...

“Aucklanders have made me proud, and humbled, to be your mayor. Daily briefings for Big Auckland Clean Up are starting from 1pm today. Another person died in the Waikato. MetService meteorologist John Law said a tropical cyclone will form in the Coral Sea around Thursday. At least another 72 hours before tracking towards NZ can be more certain.” In a tweet, MetService warned that the centre of the system would be near New Zealand’s coasts and that Law expects the cyclone to intensify to a severe category three storm.

Meteorologists are warning that a tropical cyclone forming in the Coral Sea and on track to hit New Zealand could cause major impacts for the North Island ...

It said more certainty of the cyclone’s path would be known on Friday. “All main global models apart from the Chinese brings a strong extra-tropical cyclone into the upper North Island late Monday. That does depend on the forward speed, how fast the system is moving and what part of the country it moves into,” he said. “The system is expected to track south eastwards, there are some differences in how quickly it is brought south eastwards and whether it will be near the country or whether it will be a little bit further away but certainly there is a risk of further heavy rain for northern parts of the country from very late on Sunday into Tuesday,” said Little. MetService meteorologist Peter Little said the cyclone would “absolutely” head towards New Zealand but also said it was too early to say if it would track over the country or if it would be further away. “That’s the kind of detail that is going to be refined in the coming days and that detail will actually mean a lot as to which regions see the most hazardous weather,” said Noll.

The storm is expected to hit category 3 or above while out at sea and is "likely to be impactful" for flood-ravaged Auckland.

MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said the cooler water would cause the storm to lose some of its energy and its cyclone designation before it reached Aotearoa. that’s a flooding risk.” “Easterly winds are likely to pick up about northern parts of the North Island during the weekend and there is low confidence of both warning amounts of rain and severe gales for Northland.” As the effects of the storm were still a few days out, MetService said it couldn’t predict exactly how much wind or rain it would bring or where it would go with a high level of confidence. Brandolino said if the ex-cyclone then tracked down the west coast of Northland and west of State Highway 1 in Auckland, that could bring storm surges from onshore winds to Northland, Auckland and Coromandel. Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino said the effects of the storm depended on where it tracked when it was forecast to hit late on Sunday.

It has the potential to be another "significant weather event" possibly bringing heavy rain and strong winds to northern regions that are still recovering from ...

Those in the upper North Island are urged to "keep a sharp eye on the forecast", with forecasters saying there's a risk of more slips and flooding.

MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said the cooler water would cause the storm to lose some of its energy and its cyclone designation before it reached Aotearoa. that’s a flooding risk.” “Easterly winds are likely to pick up about northern parts of the North Island during the weekend and there is low confidence of both warning amounts of rain and severe gales for Northland.” As the effects of the storm were still a few days out, MetService said it couldn’t predict exactly how much wind or rain it would bring or where it would go with a high level of confidence. Brandolino said if the ex-cyclone then tracked down the west coast of Northland and west of State Highway 1 in Auckland, that could bring storm surges from onshore winds to Northland, Auckland and Coromandel. Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino said the effects of the storm depended on where it tracked when it was forecast to hit late on Sunday.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology named the cyclone this afternoon, as MetService expected it to bring severe weather to the upper North Island from Sunday ...

“All main global models apart from the Chinese brings a strong extra-tropical cyclone into the upper North Island late Monday. That does depend on the forward speed, how fast the system is moving and what part of the country it moves into,” he said. “The system is expected to track southeastwards, there are some differences in how quickly it is brought southeastwards and whether it will be near the country or whether it will be a little bit further away but certainly there is a risk of further heavy rain for northern parts of the country from very late on Sunday into Tuesday,” said Little. MetService meteorologist Peter Little said the cyclone would “absolutely” head towards New Zealand but also said it was too early to say if it would track over the country or if it would be further away. “When you’re talking about a system that was once in the tropics you could be talking about a month’s worth of rain or more. “That’s the kind of detail that is going to be refined in the coming days and that detail will actually mean a lot as to which regions see the most hazardous weather,” said Noll.

North Islanders are urged to "keep a sharp eye on the forecast", with the cyclone increasing the risk of more slips and flooding.

that’s a flooding risk.” MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said the cooler water would cause the storm to lose some of its energy and its cyclone designation before it reached Aotearoa. There was a 20% chance that the amount of rain further south – in Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Hawke's Bay – would justify a warning. There was a 40% chance of heavy rain on Monday for Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel, MetService said. * MetService was predicting the cyclone would continue barrelling southeast towards New Zealand on Friday and Saturday before losing some of its “tropical characteristics” on Sunday.

The weather system threatening the North Island has now officially formed into a named tropical cyclone.

"It is expected to track southwest remaining over water, before re-curving towards the southeast on Thursday, putting it on a likely path towards Aotearoa New Zealand. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is likely to start affecting the upper North Island late Sunday into Monday. A tropical low in the Coral Sea which is set to impact New Zealand has now officially formed into a named tropical cyclone.

The tropical low in the Coral Sea has intensified as expected and is officially named Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, Australia's Bureau of meteorology says.

Covering period of Wednesday 8 - Sunday 12 November The tropical low in the Coral Sea that MetService has been monitoring over the last few days has ...

[http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=ftr](http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/?ref=ftr) and the Severe Weather Outlook from MetService NZ can be found at [http://bit.ly/TropicalCycloneActivity](http://bit.ly/TropicalCycloneActivity) “Likely impacts of this system include heavy rain, gale force winds and large waves leading to dangerous coastal conditions for the upper North Island into early next week.” It will continue on this track until it comes close to Northland late on Sunday.

MetService says it is unsure of the exact path of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle as it approaches Aotearoa.

Dangerous coastal conditions are expected along the southern and central Queensland coast over coming days.— Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland (@BOM_Qld) Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle named in the Coral Sea & is expected to track southeast towards Aotearoa New Zealand lying just to the north of us on Sunday. There is uncertainty about the exact track that Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle takes from then. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle has formed in the Coral Sea and will remain well offshore of the Queensland coast. The tropical disturbance in the Coral Sea off the coast of Queensland developed into a category one cyclone today. MetService says it is unsure of the exact path of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle as it approaches Aotearoa.