RBNZ

2023 - 2 - 22

Post cover — Image courtesy of "Mortgage Professional America"

RBNZ makes first cash rate call for 2023 (Mortgage Professional America)

The Official Cash Rate has hit 4.75%, increasing by 50 basis points from 4.25%, the Reserve Bank has announced. In its first Monetary Policy Statement of ...

“Long-term rates have gone down, which tends to indicate that the trend of rates will eventually decrease. The volume of preapproval requests had reduced, and Curtis said she was seeing more clients committed and ready to purchase. “In my experience, this is part of the property cycle. Xiao said that some non-bank lenders were stress testing borrowers above the standard mid-8% range, but noted they were generally “very flexible” with existing lending. When working with clients whose loans are due to roll over, Sarah Curtis Mortgages has a robust conversation to help them make smart decisions, she said. “It is too early to accurately assess the monetary policy implications of these weather events, given that the scale of destruction and economic disruption are only now becoming evident. Given borrowers’ expenses are thoroughly assessed, if fixed home loan interest rates climb further towards the mid-7% range, the existing buffer should be sufficient, she said. “For clients who have existing lending, we've found that now is generally not the time to borrow more, or in some cases, the existing lending amount is over their current servicing due to the increases in test rates.” “Activity is certainly constrained at the moment because of [higher interest rates and stress test rates] …many who would like to purchase just can’t get the lending they need,” Windler said. “I think a base test rate at the current level is high enough to allow for the current climate,” Curtis said. Curtis said the stress test rate used by banks is currently in the range of 8.5% to 9%. [75 basis point rise in the official cash rate on November 23](https://www.mpamag.com/nz/news/general/rbnz-announces-november-official-cash-rate/428322), and is off the back of two extreme weather events, namely the [Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods in January](https://www.mpamag.com/nz/news/general/flood-cost-estimated-at-hundreds-of-millions/436012), followed by [Cyclone Gabrielle in February](https://www.mpamag.com/nz/news/general/cyclone-gabrielle-puts-businesses-under-pressure/436343), prompting [Kiwibank economists to caution that a rate hike of 50 basis points or higher be sidelined.](https://www.mpamag.com/nz/news/general/kiwibank-rbnz-should-pause-its-interest-rate-hikes-after-cyclone-gabrielle/436583)

When is the RBNZ and how it could affect NZD/USD? (FXStreet)

Early Wednesday at 01:00 GMT market sees the key monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) amid hopes of another hawkish play.

The RBNZ interest rate decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. There is hardly any talk left of a hiking pause and rate cutting later this year. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. The precious metal is broadly showing a volatility contraction. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. That said, the bleak economic outlook and early signals for peak rates might tease the sellers despite the 0.50% rate hike announcement. Technically, the Kiwi pair rests on the 200-DMA support surrounding 0.6180, pressured down by a three-week-old resistance line, close to 0.6285-90. Market pricing is a little short of 50bp for today, perhaps reflecting the cyclone impact on spending and confidence. It should be noted that the quote’s latest corrective bounce could be linked to the market’s preparations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. However, a negative surprise due to the natural calamity at home won’t hesitate to drown the Kiwi pair. RBNZ is up for fueling the market moves with its 10th consecutive rate hike, expectedly worth 0.50%, during early Wednesday.

New Zealand Delivers Half-Point Rate Hike, Still Sees 5.5% Peak (Bloomberg)

New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point, slowing its pace of tightening, but signaled further hikes will be needed to ...

The bank’s forecasts show the OCR peaking at 5.5% this year, unchanged from its previous projections though taking slightly longer to get there.

[BREAKING NEWS] The RBNZ makes big OCR call - Good Returns (goodreturns.co.nz)

Have you registered to attend next week's TMM Better Business conference? We're just putting the final touches to next week's event, and you still have time to ...

We’re just putting the final touches to next week’s event, and you still have time to register. [Sign In](https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/sso/module.php/core/as_login.php?AuthId=default-sp&ReturnTo=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goodreturns.co.nz%2Farticle%2F976521379%2Fbreaking-news-the-rbnz-makes-big-ocr-call.html) to add your comment Have you registered to attend next week's TMM Better Business conference?

BUZZ-COMMENT-RBNZ to hike by 50 bps - OCR projection in focus (Nasdaq)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% on Wednesday. The short-term fate of the NZD ...

If the RBNZ projection is more hawkish than expected, it may provide a short-term base for the New Zealand dollar. But the Adrian Orr-led central bank may push back against the market prematurely picking a peak and leave the OCR track unchanged. Feb 22 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% on Wednesday.

RBNZ set to scale back its jumbo rate hikes (CMC Markets)

following a decline in inflation expectations last week, the Reserve Bank is expected to slow down its rate hikes to a 50 basis points increase.

Recipients of such information who are resident in Singapore may contact CMC Markets Singapore on 1800 559 6000 for any matters arising from or in connection with the information. Another economic gauge of the RBNZ, New Zealand labour markets softened in the fourth quarter, which also strengthens the odds for a slowdown in rate hikes. Where such information is issued or promulgated to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CMC Markets Singapore accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analysis or report, to the extent required by law. In a longer timeframe, China’s reopening could relieve the supply chain issues and improve demand outlooks, which plays a key role in the global economy in 2023. The Bank may soften its tone on further rate hikes but remain cautious as inflation is sticky and the labour market stays tight. The cooling inflation expectations will most likely promote the Reserve Bank to slow down its rate hikes going forward, but it will not change the course of hiking rates.

OCR decision: Reserve Bank delivers 50 basis point rate hike (Newshub)

The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) on Wednesday has hiked the official cash rate by 50 basis points. That takes New Zealand's baseline interest rate to 4.75 percent, ...

RBNZ Announces Another Increase To The OCR | Scoop News (Scoop.co.nz)

Jen Baird, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “The Reserve Bank's announcement today of another increase to the OCR will impact both buyers' and sellers' ...

Government: Budget 2023 Date Confirmed New Budget 2023 will be delivered on Thursday 18 May, Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced today. More>> For example: There have been more protests by indigenous rural communities in Peru against a coup that’s been led by the wealthy urban elites; the West has pushed Iran even further into the arms of China; and Russia is unfurling a sneaky strategy that’s intended to create a whole new sphere of Kremlin influence in Africa. It stands for informing New Zealanders through straight-talking independent journalism, and publishing news from a huge range of sectors. This increase is likely to continue that trend as securing finance and debt servicing remain a barrier to purchasing ability. Rising interest rates directly impact affordability and we have seen slower buyer activity in the property market for some time.

Interest rates: Cyclone won't stand in the way of 5.5pc RBNZ peak (The Australian Financial Review)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slowed the pace of its policy tightening as governor Adrian Orr warned that the devastation caused by severe weather will ...

Connect with Alex on [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) The New Zealand dollar firmed to US62.26¢ after the decision. Rate cuts are not expected until the third quarter of 2024. “The fiscal response could have a meaningful impact on the RBNZ’s inflation forecast given the conclusion from the Review and Assessment of the Formulation and Implementation of Monetary Policy (RAFIMP) was that the bank had previously undercooked fiscal policy impacts.” Mr Orr indicated that the timing, size and nature of the New Zealand government’s fiscal response to the New Zealand’s central bank lifted the cash rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4.75 per cent on Wednesday, in line with economist expectations. ANZ pointed out that the RBNZ’s new forecasts were finalised on February 16, when the scale of the storm’s devastation was only just starting to be appreciated, and that they also rely on fiscal inputs from the bank’s half-year update. While consumer prices will remain slightly higher than previously expected through the second half, the RBNZ maintained its prediction that inflation will return to the top of its 1 per cent to 3 per cent target range by the third quarter of 2024. Markets are pricing in a further 0.75 percentage points of rate rises by the RBNZ which are assumed to be delivered over the next two meetings. The central bank’s new forecasts showed that inflation is expected to accelerate back to a 32-year high of 7.3 per cent in the current quarter, the same level as the June quarter of last year. ANZ said it now sees risks to its peak cash rate forecast of 5.25 per cent due to the likely influence of the cyclone on inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slowed the pace of its policy tightening as governor Adrian Orr warned that the devastation caused by severe weather will worsen inflationary pressures and hit economic growth,

Live: RBNZ press conference (Interest.co.nz)

Live-streamed video from the February 2023 RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement press conference with Governor Adrian Orr.

[here](https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2023/mpsfeb23.pdf). There are summaries [here](https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2023/monetary-policy-statement-snapshots-feb-2023.pdf) and [here](https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2023/mpsfeb23-briefing.pdf). [here](https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2023/02/reserve-bank-increases-the-official-cash-rate).

RBNZ raises rates by 50 bps, flags more hikes as inflation remains ... (Yahoo Finance)

Investing.com--The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked interest rates as expected on Wednesday and forecast more increases in borrowing costs as the country ...

New Zealand Dollar Climbs after RBNZ Stays Interest Rate Course (Pound Sterling Live)

"It is still early in the recovery process and estimates of the wider economic impacts are highly uncertain. However, these events will likely result in ...

(If you are looking to protect or boost your international payment budget you could consider securing today's rate for use in the future, or set an order for your ideal rate when it is achieved, more information can be found ](/images/2023/Ferbuary-22-2023-RBNZ-Selected-Policy-Rates-and-Outlooks.png) [here](https://horizoncurrency.com/190-request-your-quote-a181).) "It is still early in the recovery process and estimates of the wider economic impacts are highly uncertain. Global equity indices have increased, and the US dollar has depreciated. Stock indices had fallen almost across the board on Tuesday as U.S. [quarterly Monetary Policy Statement](https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2023/mpsfeb23.pdf) says. To optimise the timing of international payments you could consider setting a free FX rate alert ](/images/2023/February-22-2023-RBNZ-North-Island-Storm-Impacts.png) [here](/rate-alert-articles). Dollar, Australian Dollar, Pound Sterling, Chinese Renminbi, Canadian Dollar and South African Rand. They have destroyed capital stock, thereby reducing supply, and will increase demand over coming years (table A1)," the [Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement. "Risk sentiment in global financial markets has improved recently. "Some people have lost their lives. Many people have lost their homes, vehicles and possessions.

NZD/JPY bulls attack 84.00 amid RBNZ rate hike, sluggish yields (FXStreet)

NZD/JPY bulls flirt with the 84.00 threshold, after cheering a jump to 84.22, as they reassess the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) headlines early.

Where stocks go from here still very much depends on the Federal Reserve's upcoming moves. GBP/USD has come under fresh selling pressure and dropped below 1.2100 in the European morning. The pair's upside could be linked to the US Dollar’s retreat amid a cautious mood and a minor pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. Daily Pivot Point R3 Daily Pivot Point R2 Daily Pivot Point R1 Daily Pivot Point S1 On the other hand, the US 10-year and two-year treasury bond yields seesaw around the three-month highs marked the previous day as markets await the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. That said, Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index for Japan came in as -5.0 for February versus -6.0 in January. Following the RBNZ decision, the quarterly Rate Statement said, “There are early signs of lessening price pressures.” The same should have challenged the NZD/JPY bulls. NZD/JPY bulls flirt with the 84.00 threshold, after cheering a jump to 84.22, as they reassess the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) headlines early Wednesday.

RBNZ

Explore the last week